Each year, Craig Buckler makes 10 predictions about the year to come, and gives himself a score for the previous year. Read on to see how he performed in 2016, and what he predicts for the web in 2017!
I’ve listed predictions for several years, and I’m generally proved wrong, but here goes …
The 2016 Results
I scored 3.5 out of 10 in 2015, so let’s see how my 2016 forecasts fared.
1. A Major Corporate Hack Will Occur
This was a dead certainty, and hacking news rolled in from January. It seems unfair to name names, but Yahoo!, the US Department of Justice, Snapchat, Verizon, LinkedIn, Oracle and Dropbox are just the start. Perhaps it would be easier to list which companies were not compromised?
Frustratingly, few attacks are sophisticated. A little care and security expertise would have prevented most. 1 out of 1 — but don’t expect this 100% success rate to last!
2. Static Sites Will Go Mainstream
I predicted static site generators (SSGs) such as Jekyll, Middleman and Metalsmith would become increasingly popular. SSGs produce a fully-cached site which is secure and highly scalable. A large number of WordPress sites would benefit.
It’s difficult to measure adoption because SSGs generate plain HTML and don’t necessarily reveal themselves. Despite some attention, I couldn’t claim they went “mainstream”. SSGs are not eating into WordPress’s market, which now powers 27.3% of the web (and 58.5% of sites running a content management system).
1 out of 2 — this is more familiar!
3. Chrome’s Market Share Will Plateau
This was another obvious forecast; no software can expect exponential user growth forever. I correctly stated Chrome would not reach 60% on desktop devices by the year end. Admittedly, 59% isn’t far off, but I’m taking the point!
2 out of 3!
4. Vivaldi Will Attract Attention
Vivaldi is a powerful new browser worthy of praise. It’s reminiscent of Opera 12 — which is understandable, given it was created by ex-Opera employees.
5. Apple Must Address Safari’s Shortcomings
Safari has fallen noticeably behind others, despite being the only real web browser on the iPhone and iPad. Apple has committed to a few lackluster annual updates, but Safari lethargy continues to hold back the mobile web.
3 out of 5 — thanks Apple.
6. CSS Grid Layout Will Be Usable
So near yet so far. Grid layout will revolutionize web design, but it’s taken a long time to arrive and remains somewhat experimental. 2017 is far more promising.
3 out of 6 — but at least I have an odds-on prediction for next year!
7. Design Mobilification
Designs have become noticeably simpler and that’s no bad thing, given mobile overtook desktop web access in December 2016. That said, not everyone got the memo, and swathes of the web remain a horrible bloated experience.
Half a point seems fair — 3.5 out of 7.
8. Average Page Weight Will Fall
I was being hopelessly optimistic, but thought increased attention on performance would have some effect. Average page weight increased 10% during 2016 and stands at 2,479KB. It seems we’re still obsessed with meaningless high-resolution photographs, underused social media integration and intrusive advertising.
3.5 out of 8 — will page weight ever fall?
9. WebAssembly Will Be a Niche Technology
4.5 out of 9 — still half right!
10. The Death of SEO
This was my most controversial prediction. We have entered the third age of SEO:
- Between 1995 and the early part of the century, black-hat techniques reigned. SEO was about tricking search engines with keyword repetition and hidden text.
- Google killed the hacks with a PageRank algorithm which used hyperlinks to rate relevancy. That led to an explosion of automated web page farms with the sole purpose of linking to target sites.
- Google’s algorithms were refined to thwart these methods and, during the past few years, the only guaranteed solution was to write good content others want to read.
That’s it. There are a few technical tricks such as placing keywords in prominent tags, creating a sitemap and monitoring user behavior, but even those have become less relevant. The explosion of fake news on social media is the SEO industry response: you can’t easily fool Google, but users are another matter …
The days of offering SEO as an expensive secret sauce for your website are over. Few people will agree with me, but I’m still awarding myself half a point. 5 out of 10 — not too shabby!
2017 Web Predictions
Here’s what you came for. I take no responsibility for any financial or esteem losses made by those following these predictions!
1. Mobile Will Continue to Outpace Desktop Usage
Mobile and desktop web use reached 50:50 parity in December 2016. It took longer than many predicted, but mobile growth will not stop. The primary reason: mobiles have become a disruptive technology in places where the PC revolution never took place. Billions of people in Asia and Africa are trading on smartphones in ways which are implausible in the Western world.
Mobile access will be close to 60% by the end of 2017.
2. Mobile-First Becomes Mobile-Only
Is there any point designing a desktop experience when the majority of your users access from a mobile device? Responsive Web Design will remain an essential skill, but the desktop experience need not be wildly different. Simplicity will lead to greater performance and a better user experience — but I doubt page weight will fall.
3. Grid Layout Will be Usable — Really!
Ironically, CSS Grid Layout will become widely supported at a time fewer sites adopt complex desktop designs.
4. The Rise of Progressive Web Apps
If you learn one technology in 2017, make sure it’s Progressive Web Apps. PWAs can transform your site or application within a few hours to offer the benefits of both web and native apps:
- simple URL deployment, discovery and installation
- a home screen icon but few device resources required
- fast-launching with a custom splash screen
- snappy sandboxed execution
- local and cloud-based storage with synchronization
- offline functionality.
There’s no guarantee Apple will implement PWA technology, but it won’t matter: your app will work in Safari without the benefits of offline execution.
For more information, see Dev.Opera’s Progressive Web Apps: The definitive collection of resources and Google’s PWA Guides.
5. The Demise of Native Apps
If the web can emulate native, is there any point in creating OS-specific applications? AppStores won’t die overnight, but many companies will migrate to Progressive Web Apps. Your app can finally contain whatever nudity and swearing you desire without Apple and Google demanding 30% of your profits!
6. Virtual Reality Will be a Niche Technology
VR is exciting, but it remains too impractical and immersive to become a daily experience. Some games will be transformed, but the gaming and — ahem — adult entertainment industries will be the primary adopters of VR technology. Few will strap on a headset to view virtual products on your website.
7. … but Augmented Reality Will Fare Better
Augmented Reality is a more exciting prospect. The overlaying of information on smartphone displays has become essential for travelers and Pokemon Go obsessives. In-car systems and Microsoft Hololens will be available during 2017, and I expect Google to revive their Glass project if those products are successful.
8. The Browser Market Will Remain Static
Chrome has won. Usage won’t change significantly during 2017, and competitors will continue to struggle. Firefox should remain above 10%, and many IE users will switch to Edge as they upgrade Windows. Safari is being propped up by iPhone and iPad sales, but Apple’s future fortunes are less certain.
Don’t expect to see twelve Browser Trends articles this year.
9. Your Framework Will Be Superseded
The majority of frameworks dictate a way of working based on today’s web challenges; they don’t necessarily align with the requirements you’ll have tomorrow. Use a framework, by all means, but recognize that it can never be the optimum solution for all tasks, and its lifespan is limited.
10. Encryption is the New Ad-Blocking
Ad-blocking technologies were available in the late 1990s, but reached a mainstream, non-technical audience a few years ago. Demand for encryption software and services will undergo a similar transformation, following increased hacking activity and the public’s mistrust of government and large corporations.
- Browsers will give stronger warnings or deny access to HTTP sites.
- More users will consider password management tools.
- More web applications will implement 2-step or passwordless authentication.
- Encrypted offline and cloud-based storage will be provided, independently of the service supplier.
- Virtual private network and TOR usage will rise.
Some will consider this a bad thing: those with nothing to hide have no need for encryption. However, having nothing to hide is not the same as revealing everything to everyone. It’s going to be an interesting few years …
Are these predictions correct? Do you foresee other certainties? Happy New Year!
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Craig is a freelance UK web consultant who built his first page for IE2.0 in 1995. Since that time he's been advocating standards, accessibility, and best-practice HTML5 techniques. He's created enterprise specifications, websites and online applications for companies and organisations including the UK Parliament, the European Parliament, the Department of Energy & Climate Change, Microsoft, and more. He's written more than 1,000 articles for SitePoint and you can find him @craigbuckler.