Currently I am seeking to either go Flash Forward or no Flash depending on Adobe's current position.
Any body know the current support offered by Flash? Suggestion and opinions welcomed...
You should base your decision on what's supported out in the wild.
Essentially, mobile computing (tablets and phones) have no flash support.
Yet--decent flash media players will play most of the common video formats.
Here's what current browsers natively support through HTML5: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HTML5_video#Browser_support