Continuing their tenth anniversary “future” series, today it’s YouTube CEO Chad Hurley’s turn to take up the Google blog pulpit and expound on the future of online video.
Hurley makes some bold predictions for YouTube, which he says receives 13 hours of video every second — a number he thinks will continue to grow exponentially. Hurley says that YouTube’s goal is to make the process of uploading a video “as simple as placing a phone call.” Once uploaded, Hurley promises that YouTube videos will be available on any screen from television to mobile.
Because YouTube uses Flash to deliver its video, the legwork for that last bit might be done for them. Adobe’s Open Screen Project, which was launched last Spring, shares the common goal of getting Flash video and content on as many screens as possible.
According to Hurley, as the cost of video recording equipment comes down (and is integrated into more devices), “online video broadcasting will be the most ubiquitous and accessible form of communication.” That seems a bit far fetched — certainly video could become as easy and accessible as voice and text publishing have become, but it is harder to imagine that it will become the most ubiquitous form of communication.
Of course, that hinges on your definition of “most ubiquitous.” It’s hard to imagine text will ever be supplanted as the preferred method of long form, more permanent types of communication (at least, not in ten years), for example. But if video could become as easy and secure as placing a phone call, then it could conceivably replace voice communications for a lot of casual use.
But can you really envision a future where you fire off a video message more often than a quick text email? Or where it makes sense to be carrying on 5 different video instant message sessions at once rather than 5 different text IM sessions?
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Also, you can’t scan a video article as easily as you can a text one to find out if it contains content that interests you.
September 17th, 2008 at 8:02 am