Internet Explorer Extinct by 2013? 2010 Update

Three years is a long time in browser land, and a lot has changed since I originally posted this prediction. One thing that still holds true, though, is that by using the same linear mathematical methods with two more years of real data, IE will still be dead on SitePoint by 2013.In fact, the pace has picked up. When I originally ran this calculation, it predicted IE disappearing from SitePoint by mid 2013. This latest result has brought that forward to the 1st of January, 2013. What a way to welcome in the New Year!For the mathematicians ready to pick holes in my logic (and I know you’re out there), this is using a line of best-fit calculation. It’s also only data on visitors to SitePoint, so there will be a technical skew. Yet, it’s impossible to ignore that this is my third update, and the downward trend has remained consistent. I was expecting to see a leveling out, but to actually see a small increase in the rate of decline was quite startling.With IE9 just around the corner, I’m anticipating the 2011 update to see if IE can manage to turn it around—or maybe we just don’t want them to.

But what about the other browsers?

With my previous posts, many commenters requested information about other browsers, so this time I’ve included an additional graph showing the deviation with the other major players. All I can say is, “Go Chrome!” It’s certainly a big mover, and just a whisker off pipping IE. It’s also stealing a decent chunk of market share from Firefox. Safari is certainly on the up, but nowhere near the extent of Chrome.

So there you have it—two years on, and the trend continues—IE dead by 2013. Unlikely, but we can still dream.

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  • Seph

    IE8 and before dead, sure that’d be good to dream about. IE9 dead though? Why desire that? By 2013 ideally we’ll be looking forward to IE11 or IE12.

  • descarte

    hahaha, this is so biased against microsoft… IE9 is learning from firefox – need to give them abit of credit for that.

    They are picking up but always seems abit behind but when they hit back, they hit back hard. Windows 7 and .net are good examples I think.

  • AaronWinters

    I’m still pretty underwhelmed about the coming of IE9 since, although seeming to be a huge improvement on the browser front, its not of much use to those still running older OS (namely XP). Last stat I saw was that Win7 still isnt all that widely in use (40%?) leaving way too many machines locked out of upgrading to the IE9 browser. I just cant see your stereotypical home user, esp. one that was burned on a Vista upgrade, running out to step up their machine to Win7 for $150 just to upgrade to a browser that works almost as well as the Chrome or Firefox they already have.

  • http://www.sitepoint.com ShayneTilley

    I agree, I think Windows 7 is great, and to have our CTO and my personal technical consultant Kevin rave about how excited he is by IE9, well, I can’t wait. But I need to remove these hopes from the stats as hand.

    As I mentioned — next years result is going to be fascinating!

  • Mikkol

    Internet Explorer is extinct to Sitepoint, not the world (remember the stats are of Sitepoint). Remember XP is supported till 2020. We web developer’s nightmare ain’t over any time soon. Dream on.

  • Sniffer

    Pointless article in my eyes.

    I’d prefer to hear about global the browser market rather than hearing about the stats on one site that attract a particular type of user…

    • http://www.sitepoint.com AlexW

      Where do those stats exist? Individual sites and networks have their own server logs that records the skew of their niche. Toolbars and embedded services like Compete or ‘The Counter’ don’t have a useful representative sample.

      Google and perhaps the ad networks are the only entities that could claim to have a worthwhile high-level view of what’s happening all over — an neither are interested in publishing their data at the moment.

      We can give you a worthwhile view of we we can see. I don’t think you need to be a genius to say the SitePoint audience is obviously more savvy than the garden-variety user, so we see trends start earlier, and become more pronounced here.

      Nevertheless most of these broad trends do wash through to the everyday user 18-24 months later — albeit often in a diluted sense.

      • Sniffer

        I don’t claim that they are exact (and to be honest I’m not sure how they get these stats!) but I use http://marketshare.hitslink.com/browser-market-share.aspx?qprid=3.

        I’ve found that these – give or take a couple of percent for each browser – approximately match web logs for my company’s site, which is publicly facing and caters for users of all ages, abilities, etc.

        Naturally it depends on your market and your own web logs, but if your site is publically facing Internet Explorer ain’t going nowhere. Let’s just hope IE6 continues to steadily decline.

        I’d be interested to know at what percentage mark people decide to stop supporting IE6 and IE7…

  • Michael

    Wonder what the IE spikes are all about in late 08/early 09?