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  1. #1
    SitePoint Enthusiast sullenboy's Avatar
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    Get ready for the worst - 2009

    Today is the last day of the 2008 and while it's been a year of downwards spirals for the U.S. economy the start of 2009 may take our economy to even further depths.. What are you bracing for as the new years kicks in ?

    I am going to be bracing for the increase in crime where I live.. Things have been especially hard in NYC and have only been getting worst with the decline of the US economy and job cuts about to be in effect... thing's do not look good for the start of 09... Here comes the worse...

  2. #2
    SitePoint Wizard drhowarddrfine's Avatar
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    Nothing different for me. Sales in my restaurants were actually up 10% for the holidays and my income for the year will be the same. It looks like I'll have more work this coming year judging by the appointments I have coming up. My neighborhood looks the same. There's some juicy deals at the retail stores, too.

    Yesterday, my wife and I went house hunting for a second home (again). We sold our country place last year but both our boys are in college and one might want to rent our current house when he graduates while we find a smaller one in a more upscale neighborhood.

    We don't owe anybody anything, except a reasonably small mortgage left on our house. No credit card debt, loans, etc. College we pay with cash.

    Don't watch TV. Watch what's around you. If you wake up and things appear the same, then you're OK. My puppy turned 1-year old yesterday and she still loves me, too.

  3. #3
    Programming Since 1978 silver trophybronze trophy felgall's Avatar
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    Things are just about certain to improve between now and the end of the year.
    Stephen J Chapman

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  4. #4
    SitePoint Wizard webcosmo's Avatar
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    so far looks like the cash injection from the bailout is working. hopefully it would be able to hold the economy on track.

  5. #5
    SitePoint Addict yourhostnow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by webcosmo View Post
    so far looks like the cash injection from the bailout is working.
    Are you kidding..

  6. #6
    Programming Since 1978 silver trophybronze trophy felgall's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by yourhostnow View Post
    Are you kidding..
    The entire world's financial structure would have collapsed months ago if it hadn't worked. That your money is not waste paper that you are burning to keep warm is a clear indication that the bailout worked.
    Stephen J Chapman

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  7. #7
    SitePoint Addict yourhostnow's Avatar
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    waste paper that you are burning to keep warm
    Hey! I'm pretty sure they did that in the 30's!

    But no, I'm not saying that the bailout hasn't helped in some ways. I just feel like a lot of it was rushed.. people being pressured to do and support different things with no grounds. It all came overnight, which something of this magnitude couldn't have. Powerful head on, they decided to avoid the inevitable. And most of them have met their match.

  8. #8
    SitePoint Wizard drhowarddrfine's Avatar
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    I agree with yourhostnow. I'm not so sure the bailout money has taken effect yet. I'm positive not all of it is being used properly. I also think it was mostly unnecessary. It seems we went from not knowing anything about it to every institution needing plenty of it overnight.

    But I'll shut up now because I don't want to get into any political thing.

  9. #9
    Programming Since 1978 silver trophybronze trophy felgall's Avatar
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    I have heard second hand info that came from financial experts (the person who told me got it straight from the experts) that the bailout plans were left just about as late as they could be without the world financial system completely collapsing and that the fact that any money in the world is still worth anything at all is proof that the bailout plan worked. Whether we have seen the full effect of the bailout yet I can't comment on but I have it on good authority that if those plans hadn't been announced when they were that there wouldn't have been any point in announcing them the following week because it would have been too late to do anything by then. As to why they left it that late - probably a political thing as surely someone should have recognised that something was wrong at least a few months earlier. For some reason politicians don't like to start working on fixing problems until there is no possible way anyone can deny that the problem exists even if that means waiting until the last minute (or years after the last minute) before acting. A clear example of this is the current action to reduce carbon emissions which ought to have been actioned in the 1970s or earlier. Of course if the politicians had fixed that problem back then when all the experts clearly recognised the problem they wouldn't have been able to use the problem to win votes from the general public only some of whom recognised that the problem existed at that time. The same is probably true but with a much shorter timescale for the financial situation.
    Stephen J Chapman

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  10. #10
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    there will be sudden rise in economy in 2009

  11. #11
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    I don't have much knowledge of finance and economy, but I do wish that things should do good in the year 2009.

  12. #12
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    I predict things will get worse - possibly much worse. Don't be fooled by the annual holiday season buying spree and corporate bailouts.

    I work in the mail industry, and we weren't sure we would even have a holiday season this year because of a really frightening slump in mail. What saved me was a double punch: The job got so bad that people stopped coming to work, and a major snow fall kept even more people home. So I eventually wound up with more work than I could handle.

    But we still had an extraordinarily short "peak season," and my job is still being rapidly downsized. The job I used to have with the U.S. Postal Service no longer exists - not enough mail.

    Ironically, I'm actually better off than a lot of people. I'm not in debt, I have a job, and I've finally acquired enough skills to possibly make some money from the Internet, through my websites and/or freelancing.

    But I think we're in for a roller coaster ride. This would be a good thread to bookmark and check every month or two. I'm in the process of launching a new website titled "Great Depression II," so you can guess what my long-term predictions are.

  13. #13
    I Love Licorice silver trophybronze trophy Datura's Avatar
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    If you all care to understand why we are in this mess, over and over repeating cycles, here is a great summary of reasoning: http://www.gather.com/viewArticle.js...0&nav=MyGather

    It is the regulated markets and fractional-reserve/fiat money/central banking system that is the root cause. As long as people adhere to the altruist systems in their governments that support this so they can keep printing money, we will have these swings. Period.
    Ulrike
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  14. #14
    whagwan? silver trophybronze trophy akritic's Avatar
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    I'm looking forward to riding the upward wave again ...surf's up dudes

  15. #15
    SitePoint Zealot korr's Avatar
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    Don't hold your breath for a recovery. The banks had to borrow billions so they could honor your ATM requests. Mortgage resets stay frequent until late 2011 and all of these bailouts and stimulus plans do nothing to address the debt per capita issues that put the financial system at risk in the first place.

    If you expect things to "go back to normal" and you're defining "normal" as the last 20-30 years, you'll be disappointed. A historical analysis of crises suggests the current crisis-mode could persist another 12-15 years, perhaps even climaxing in the equivalent of WW3. A good sign that we're headed down that road will be increasing barriers to international trade and a generally more mercantile approach to economic policy at home & overseas.

    Doom & gloom? Only if you get defeatist about it. I see a once in a lifetime opportunity to buy cheap assets coming up over the next decade.
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  16. #16
    King of Paralysis by Analysis bronze trophy
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    Quote Originally Posted by felgall View Post
    the fact that any money in the world is still worth anything at all is proof that the bailout plan worked.
    And the fact that the restaurant near me is not bankrupt is proof that my personal economic stimulus plan to keep restaurants afloat "worked" because I ordered a pizza from there last week.

    Did the bailout plan help in the short-term? Yes.
    Is the fact that we're not all living in caves because of the bailout plan? No.

    The truth of the matter is a simple one, America could not continue on it's previous path, there's only so much credit out there to be borrowed and those credit taps will not be as open in the future (which is a good thing in the long-term).

    People (and governments) will actually have to earn their money to buy things, not borrow money they can't afford to pay back to buy them.
    Last edited by r937; Jan 1, 2009 at 11:51. Reason: removed a political comment

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by korr View Post
    Doom & gloom? Only if you get defeatist about it. I see a once in a lifetime opportunity to buy cheap assets coming up over the next decade.
    Ironically, I, too, have some hope that I might ironically profit in spite of - or possibly because of - the situation. Unfortunately, I see no hope for the U.S. as a whole. I feel so sorry for my former students. They deserved so much better.

  18. #18
    I hate Spammers mobyme's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by felgall View Post
    As to why they left it that late - probably a political thing as surely someone should have recognised that something was wrong at least a few months earlier.
    You are joking aren't you, there were any number of people warning that this was going to happen; some going back to 2003.
    Not everybody joined in the self deluding madness of worthless money generated on the back of high risk credit.
    But the madness goes on; only this time we are borrowing not against worthless assets; but against the future. Everything is based on the lie that the world economy will go into meltdown if we try to address the real problem which is that people and countries have to learn to live within their means. Get back to real money backed up with tangible assets and the situation will quickly resolve itself. All the present exercise is doing is delaying the inevitable.
    There are three kinds of men:
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    The few who learn by observation.
    The rest of us have to pee on the electric fence.

  19. #19
    Programming Since 1978 silver trophybronze trophy felgall's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mobyme View Post
    You are joking aren't you, there were any number of people warning that this was going to happen; some going back to 2003.solve itself.
    Why would you suggest I was joking and then basically agree with what I said.

    The bailout program has delayed the total collapse giving time to fix the problem properly. From what I have heard from financial experts when the bailout program was finally accepted the world financial system was within days of complete collapse so delaying that collapse was critical if any recovery within our lifetimes is to be possible. If things really were that close to total collapse then a patchup solution just to provide time was essential. We could of course disagree with the experts on just how close to total collapse that things got but the various Governments based their action on what the experts told them.

    I don't think anyone thinks of the bailout program as any sort of solution, it was just an immediate action that needed to be taken to give the time to come up with a proper solution. I agree with you that getting everyone to live within their means is needed to really fix the problem.
    Stephen J Chapman

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  20. #20
    Theoretical Physics Student bronze trophy Jake Arkinstall's Avatar
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    We've known this collapse was going to happen for a long time. People were seen as sceptics because they forcast the economic climate to be bad.

    Then they were seen as being over-precautious; but as soon as it starts to slide, everyone is wondering why its happening so fast without warning. Sigh.

    What I worry about is the risks businesses are taking.

    You'd think that businesses would take measures to last this one out, yet almost daily on the news you hear of businesses injecting massive amounts of money into risky investments - usually losing out.

    Now, I don't know much about the global economy, but surely the best solution would be to try and live this one out?
    Jake Arkinstall
    "Sometimes you don't need to reinvent the wheel;
    Sometimes its enough to make that wheel more rounded"-Molona

  21. #21
    SQL Consultant gold trophysilver trophybronze trophy
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    have you seen the Money As Debt video? it's 47 minutes and it's really good
    rudy.ca | @rudydotca
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  22. #22
    whagwan? silver trophybronze trophy akritic's Avatar
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    Was that posted here earlier on a different thread? I've seen that video before..

  23. #23
    SQL Consultant gold trophysilver trophybronze trophy
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    yes i think it was on sitepoint that i first heard about the video

    i just googled it to find the link

    the title had stuck with me, and, no surprise, it was the #1 hit
    rudy.ca | @rudydotca
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  24. #24
    SitePoint Zealot ozone88's Avatar
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    All info and indications from our business is that 2009 is going to be tight but not a complete wipe out.

    The company I work for supplies goods to the big steel manufactures and with the slow down in the US, the Chinese aren't buying ore or steel so we've being asked to take holidays and cut costs as much as possible. But that being said we are starting already to see non-traditional markets steping up. In fact we've had our busy Christmas ever we nearly double our monthly average.
    Catherine

  25. #25
    SitePoint Enthusiast TriNi27's Avatar
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    yeah I agree. I'm scared about what the economy is coming to. I'm not sure if it will go up or down. Seems to be fluctuating alot lately. That's why I've been trying my best to earn extra money here and there and save as much as I can.
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