SitePoint Sponsor

User Tag List

Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 25 of 26
  1. #1
    SitePoint Co-founder Matt Mickiewicz's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 1999
    Location
    Vancouver, Canada
    Posts
    2,384
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)

    7 Predictions for 2004

    Reposted from the SitePoint Tribune:

    7 Predictions for 2004
    1. Google introduces something to combat the growing spam problem which the US Federal CAN-SPAM fails to do anything about in 2004. The technology is a big hit.

    2. Yahoo unleashes its own crawler-based search engine in Q4 of 2004 based on AllTheWeb.com . The Inktomi database ends up being used for less than a year.

    3. Pop-up advertising suffers a serious blow thanks to Microsoft's upcoming Service Pack and prices for pop-up/pop-under inventory increase drastically. Google AdSense is the biggest winner of the change, though earnings for publishers decline across the board throughout 2004.

    4. Salon.com goes out of business.

    5. Tensions between the USA & Europe increase due to opposing spam laws: The US legitimized it, but its outlawed in Europe. Europeans can expect to be innundated with junk from the US & Asia in 2004.

    6. A major software company or portal (read: Microsoft, Yahoo or Macromedia) released an RSS reader and launches an aggressive marketing campaign to introduce the technology to the masses.

    7. Major consolidation in the social networking sites: Friendster, LinkedIn, Tribe.net, Ryze, ecademy.com , etc. But watch for another trend: social-network spam.

    Thoughts? Comments? Your Own Predictions?
    Matt Mickiewicz - Co-Founder
    SitePoint.com - Empowering Web Developers Since 1997
    Follow me on Twitter.

  2. #2
    l 0 l silver trophybronze trophy lo0ol's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2002
    Location
    Palo Alto
    Posts
    5,329
    Mentioned
    1 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Good. I was wondering where your new predictions went for 2004. They're becoming habit.

    I'd agree with the bit about pop inventory, and I really agree that AdSense revenue for publishers will go down throughout the year unless they do something drastically different.

    #1 is interesting. I have no idea if that's what they're thinking, but I think if Google released something large-scale it could become quite popular.

  3. #3
    SitePoint Wizard
    Join Date
    Apr 2002
    Location
    Brisbane QLD Australia
    Posts
    1,489
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    I'd agree with #1 in part, however I feel it will be an entire collective industry (Yahoo, Google, Microsoft, AOL, Open Source Community) initative and effort that will bring about the reduction and impact of SPAM. I beleive this because of what the Yahoo! idea http://edition.cnn.com/2003/TECH/int...am.yahoo.reut/ which has already announced and because of the general nature of the e-mail system being so decentralised with literally hundreds of thousands or even millions of e-maiil providers (ISPs, web hosts, web based anonymous e-mail providers) means that it will be very hard for one company to dominate the space.

    I'd also say that Google adsense revenue will increase across the board. This is because use of the the internet as an effective advertsing medium for small to medium sized businesses has only become possible in the last 2-5 years since Google AdWords and GoTo/Overture were first introduced. There is room for more growth in total number advertsiers especiallly in more mainstream/offline industries which will push click prices up in keyword categories that previously had little to no advertsiers. Product categories that adopted AdWords early (eg. tech related or marketing services related) will most likely see keyword bid prices reduce due to the maturing of their categories.

  4. #4
    l 0 l silver trophybronze trophy lo0ol's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2002
    Location
    Palo Alto
    Posts
    5,329
    Mentioned
    1 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Quote Originally Posted by billiousness
    I'd also say that Google adsense revenue will increase across the board. This is because use of the the internet as an effective advertsing medium for small to medium sized businesses has only become possible in the last 2-5 years since Google AdWords and GoTo/Overture were first introduced. There is room for more growth in total number advertsiers especiallly in more mainstream/offline industries which will push click prices up in keyword categories that previously had little to no advertsiers. Product categories that adopted AdWords early (eg. tech related or marketing services related) will most likely see keyword bid prices reduce due to the maturing of their categories.
    In my opinion that will only result from a very large increase in average cost per click, as CTRs will decrease across the board.

  5. #5
    SitePoint Guru kylebacc's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2003
    Location
    naples
    Posts
    639
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    some very interesting things... lots to look forward to!
    Kyle

  6. #6
    SitePoint Member evgenyg's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2003
    Location
    Israel
    Posts
    18
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    I found LinkedIn extremely useful business tool.
    Evgeny Gesin
    Javadesk
    CEO / Founder
    Software Development for Enterprise and e-Business

  7. #7
    SitePoint Wizard samsm's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2001
    Location
    Atlanta, GA, USA
    Posts
    5,011
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Quote Originally Posted by Matt Mickiewicz
    1. Google introduces something to combat the growing spam problem which the US Federal CAN-SPAM fails to do anything about in 2004. The technology is a big hit.
    ...
    7. Major consolidation in the social networking sites: Friendster, LinkedIn, Tribe.net, Ryze, ecademy.com , etc. But watch for another trend: social-network spam.
    I don't think that any anti-spam technology will be needed after a major social networking consolidation. Those networks can fight spam on their own!

    For example, say I have 100 "friends" (this includes entities like amazon.com). 25 of my friends have 100 friends of their own. And so on. No one outside the friend circle (which is huge!) is allowed to email me. Businesses understand this and instruct new customers on how to add them to friend lists (major companies, amazon, ebay, scana, etc, will already be on such lists).

    When spam does come through (it will) the network figures out which of your friends approved the "spam friend" and their judgment is devalued accordingly.

    Perhaps I'm over-simplifying, but I think that could be the nail in the coffin for spam.
    Using your unpaid time to add free content to SitePoint Pty Ltd's portfolio?

  8. #8
    SitePoint Wizard davidjmedlock's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2002
    Location
    Nashville, TN USA
    Posts
    1,688
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Quote Originally Posted by billiousness
    I'd agree with #1 in part, however I feel it will be an entire collective industry (Yahoo, Google, Microsoft, AOL, Open Source Community) initative and effort that will bring about the reduction and impact of SPAM.
    <sarcasm>
    Yes, I plan to begin an open source project that will track down every spammer's home computer, cause the hard drive to spin extremely fast, thus super heating everything inside the case and melting all the wires and plastic together.

    The user will be unable to stop the destruction and will eventually end up with nothing but a pile of metal, plastic, and silicon fused to their desk or floor or where ever they keep their computer.

    This program will then transfer itself over their entire home network, find out where the spam was sent from and also destroy the internet lines it was sent over.

    Eventually, we will be totally spamless. Anyone want to help?
    </sarcasm>

    Seriously, I do agree with billiousness and Matt on the industry-wide spam war. Consumers are tired of getting it, but they can't seem to put a stop to it completely, so that creates a huge market and the aforementioned companies will have to realize that and take action.

  9. #9
    SitePoint Wizard bronze trophy C. Ankerstjerne's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    The Kingdom of Denmark
    Posts
    2,702
    Mentioned
    7 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Regarding #3: While I look forward to fewer pop-ups, how would this effect 'ligitimate' pop-ups (i.e. those which users will have an interest in seing)?

    On one of my sites, I use a small script (using the window.open command) to open images in a small window, when the user clicks a thumbnail (see http://www.panzerphotos.dk/p1.html as an example). Would this still be possible to use?

  10. #10
    SitePoint Zealot
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
    Posts
    116
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Hasn't Salon.com almost gone out of business every year?

  11. #11
    SitePoint Member Harry Ofzo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    NL
    Posts
    0
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Quote Originally Posted by Matt Mickiewicz
    5. [...] Europeans can expect to be innundated with junk from the US & Asia in 2004.
    As 'European' I can't say I lack American SPAM at the moment. How is this a prediction?

  12. #12
    SitePoint Wizard samsm's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2001
    Location
    Atlanta, GA, USA
    Posts
    5,011
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Quote Originally Posted by bingymon
    Hasn't Salon.com almost gone out of business every year?
    Yes, it is actually a requirement for all Internet-related prediction lists. You can write it off on your taxes.
    Using your unpaid time to add free content to SitePoint Pty Ltd's portfolio?

  13. #13
    SitePoint Wizard jag5311's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2003
    Location
    Somewhere in Indiana
    Posts
    3,082
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Here is my prediction for 2004, the Colts will win the superbowl

    p.s. I know this thread isn't about that kind of thing, but I wanted to state that for my home town team

  14. #14
    Degrading Gracefully PalmerB's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2001
    Location
    Ohio - U.S.A. Outlook: Cautiously Optimistic
    Posts
    3,283
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    SitePoint Pty. Ltd attempts a hostile takeover of Microsoft and succeeds. Bill Gates becomes a writer for SitePoint and his first book is titled "O.k., you're right. PHP is much better than ASP"

  15. #15
    SitePoint Wizard silver trophy someonewhois's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2002
    Location
    Canada
    Posts
    6,364
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    I got a way to stop the spamers... Spam 'em back and DDoS 'em at the same time.

  16. #16
    SitePoint Wizard samsm's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2001
    Location
    Atlanta, GA, USA
    Posts
    5,011
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Quote Originally Posted by someonewhois
    I got a way to stop the spamers... Spam 'em back and DDoS 'em at the same time.
    Oh, but that would make us just as bad as the corporate interests and governments that violate our privacy.
    Using your unpaid time to add free content to SitePoint Pty Ltd's portfolio?

  17. #17
    Skills to Pay the Bills Sparkie's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 1999
    Location
    A cave with 47 computers and an internet feed
    Posts
    3,559
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    How many of last year's predictions came true?
    Sherice Jacob - Web Improvement Expert
    Improve Website Conversions | eBook Covers
    Follow Me on Twitter!

  18. #18
    SitePoint Guru
    Join Date
    Sep 2002
    Location
    Universe
    Posts
    789
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    My Prediction:

    Web Hosting industry heads for a major recession, with thousands of businesses opting to sell.

    AdSense will gain intense competition, and slowly but surely, people will sway towards its competition, and not it in itself.

    However, something more revolutionary that text ads may emerge, so value of text ads will go down anyway.

    A communication boom will hit the internet... Thousands of forums, IM services, IRC rooms etc. will emerge.

    Asia will be the gainer in 2004. In all areas. Beyond the internet. China, India and Thailand will take major strides in this year; growing 4-5 times faster than traditional developed countries (USA/UK) this year.

    Outsourcing will become prominent. Outsourcing for anything and everything will start emerging. Asia will gain here too.

    Leave your opinion if you wish so

  19. #19
    I am obstructing justice. bronze trophy fatnewt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2002
    Location
    Ottawa, Canada
    Posts
    1,766
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    I predict that someone will lose their ranking in Google and declare that it was a major update has claim that it ruined their life. Consequently, aspen will get mad.
    Colin Temple [twitter: @cailean]
    Web Analyst at Napkyn


  20. #20
    SitePoint Zealot
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
    Posts
    116
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    quote: samsm

    Yes, it is actually a requirement for all Internet-related prediction lists. You can write it off on your taxes.
    Ha! That's a good one.

    Here'a nother quote though.

    Struggling Web publisher Salon Media Group secured a $200,000 investment from Wenner Media, publisher of Rolling Stone magazine.
    http://www.internetnews.com/IAR/article.php/3299741

  21. #21
    PHP manual bot bronze trophy Gaheris's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Germany
    Posts
    2,195
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    A communication boom will hit the internet... Thousands of forums, IM services, IRC rooms etc. will emerge.
    Again?

  22. #22
    SitePoint Wizard davidjmedlock's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2002
    Location
    Nashville, TN USA
    Posts
    1,688
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Quote Originally Posted by Subhadip
    Asia will be the gainer in 2004. In all areas. Beyond the internet. China, India and Thailand will take major strides in this year; growing 4-5 times faster than traditional developed countries (USA/UK) this year.

    Outsourcing will become prominent. Outsourcing for anything and everything will start emerging. Asia will gain here too.
    I agree. I believe that China especially will grow by leaps and bounds. US investors are currently realizing it's potential for growth and starting to move their investments there.

  23. #23
    SitePoint Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    San Francisco
    Posts
    0
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Quote Originally Posted by Matt Mickiewicz
    4. Salon.com goes out of business.
    I sure hope not. I finally subscribed to them and sent others gift subs for Xmas!

    We'll see: They just got $800,000 in new financing from Rolling Stone founder Jann Wenner and Adobe Systems founder and co-chairman John Warnock:

    http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/articl...UGT64B1TS1.DTL

    Stefan

  24. #24
    SitePoint Addict
    Join Date
    Jul 2002
    Location
    Sooner Nation
    Posts
    208
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Any comments on this thread.

    I only have one. Predicting a political news site goes under during an election year was not a good choice - other than that leave it to Ms. Cleo
    The only function of business is to create customer value and to innovate. - Peter Drucker

  25. #25
    l 0 l silver trophybronze trophy lo0ol's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2002
    Location
    Palo Alto
    Posts
    5,329
    Mentioned
    1 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Quote Originally Posted by Matt Mickiewicz
    1. Google introduces something to combat the growing spam problem which the US Federal CAN-SPAM fails to do anything about in 2004. The technology is a big hit.
    Gmail's filters aren't too shabby, but not exactly right-on. CAN-SPAM certainly was though.

    Quote Originally Posted by Matt Mickiewicz
    3. Pop-up advertising suffers a serious blow thanks to Microsoft's upcoming Service Pack and prices for pop-up/pop-under inventory increase drastically. Google AdSense is the biggest winner of the change, though earnings for publishers decline across the board throughout 2004.
    Turned out that it hardly was a "serious blow". Pops are still doing fine and, unfortunately, are still popular by networks and advertisers. AdSense prediction was right-on.

    Quote Originally Posted by Matt Mickiewicz
    6. A major software company or portal (read: Microsoft, Yahoo or Macromedia) released an RSS reader and launches an aggressive marketing campaign to introduce the technology to the masses.
    Would be nice, but not really yet. Slowly and surely though.

    Quote Originally Posted by Matt Mickiewicz
    7. Major consolidation in the social networking sites: Friendster, LinkedIn, Tribe.net, Ryze, ecademy.com , etc. But watch for another trend: social-network spam.
    Not really consolidation that I'm aware of, but still a lot of networking. Facebook anyone?


Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •